A&E predicts the 97th Academy Awards

2/25/25 11:45pm

Christmas for cinephiles is near as the Academy Awards will be announced on Sunday, March 2 starting at 6 p.m. CST. From controversies to big snubs and surprises, this Oscar season has already been memorable. Here are our predictions for the 97th Academy Awards.

Actress in a Leading Role
(Arman Saxena)

Best Actress this year comes down to a three-woman race between Demi Moore, Mikey Madison and Fernanda Torres. But while Madison and Torres deliver great work in Best Picture-nominated films, Moore is the one to beat. 

---

---

Moore plays Elisabeth Sparkle in “The Substance,” an aging actress grappling with being replaced by a patriarchal industry that once loved her. It’s the kind of vulnerable performance as someone in showbiz that a large portion of the industry will resonate with. So while Madison may be able to ride a wave of “Anora” goodwill to victory, expect Moore to triumph here. 

Who Should Win: Demi Moore, “The Substance”

Who Will Win: Demi Moore, “The Substance”

Actor in a Leading Role (Jay Collura)

I don’t think the Academy can make a bad choice in the Best Actor category this year. Ralph Fiennes’ performance as a conflicted cardinal in “Conclave” is emblematic of the actor’s storied career, Colman Domingo’s chemistry with the (unfortunately) unnominated Clarence Maclin makes “Sing Sing” an emotional powerhouse, and Sebastian Stan’s pitch-perfect Donald Trump impression remains extremely prescient.

Ultimately, in my mind, the award comes down to two choices (both in terms of their quality and likelihood). Timothée Chalamet’s Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown” is the film’s engine. He is actually singing and playing guitar, grasping the emotional threads that make Dylan’s music so legendary and channeling them directly on screen.

Similarly, “The Brutalist” is a film anchored on Adrien Brody. His passion, frustration, and confusion create a fury central to the movie’s greater musings about creation and art. 

It’s rather poetic that these are the two front-runners: a win would make Chalamet the youngest winner in the category, and he would be dethroning Adrien Brody’s own win for “The Pianist.” I personally give Chalamet the edge for the sheer showmanship of it all — but again, there’s not a wrong answer.

Who Should Win: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”

Who Will Win: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”

Best Picture (Arman Saxena)

Even with modern indie classics like “The Florida Project” and “Tangerine” on his resume, Sean Baker has never seen an Oscar nomination. That is, until he received four for directing, writing, producing and editing “Anora.” 

When the Oscar nominations were released in late January, many thought the Best Picture race was between “The Brutalist” or “Emilia Pérez.” 

But now, after both films sparked controversy for their use of AI — and “Emilia Pérez” faced additional backlash over its portrayal of trans and Mexican identities, as well as racist and xenophobic tweets from its star Karla Sofia Gascón — “Anora” has emerged as the frontrunner (something the Thresher predicted back in November). 

“Anora”’s surge reminds me a lot of the wave that brought “Parasite” to victory back in 2020: both films won the Cannes Palme D’Or back in May, both are distributed by NEON, both emerged as frontrunners in February and both are class-conscious films from directors who have been long-celebrated in cinephile circles before they received their Oscar flowers. 

If “Anora” wins, it won’t just be a victory for Sean Baker and co. — it’ll be a reminder that sometimes, the best stories are the ones Hollywood didn’t script. Watch out for “Conclave,” though.

Who Should Win: “Anora” is deserving, but “Nickel Boys” should win.

Who Will Win: “Anora”

Directing - Max Scholl

In the directing category, history has shown that the Academy prefers grandeur (or, at the very least, direct obviousness) over subtlety. Brady Corbet’s bloated, painfully-obvious “The Brutalist” and Coralie Fargeat’s over-the-top “The Substance” are par for the course. 

Brady Corbet’s filmmaking is so ambitious in its fickle attempts to tackle the question of artistic struggle (pure Oscar bait) that it is, literally, too big to fail. It would similarly make sense if  Fargeat won, considering how every morsel of creative effort in “The Substance” works towards the same unified vision. Of the two, it would be much better if Fargeat won. 

However, Sean Baker nails a career best in his delicate, airtight and precise direction of “Anora.” His directing is notably more subtle than the former two films, but that makes it all the better – it is less concerned with trying to pedantically spoon-feed a message to its audience than with simply making the film work. And it definitely does work. 

Who should win: Sean Baker

Who will win: Brady Corbet or Coralie Fargeat

Actress in a Supporting Role - Sara Davidson

I have many issues with “Emilia Pérez,” one of which being that Zoe Saldaña is not seen as the main character of the movie. Calling her a supporting actress when she manages to outlive and outperform everyone else on screen is unjust, and I wish that she could have the chance to be recognized in the Best Actress category for the awards season. 

Alas, life is full of difficult things, and I am grateful that Saldaña is at least receiving some credit for breathing life into this movie. She manages to keep her composure on screen, even when belting about “La Vaginoplastia” surrounded by bandaged dancers in Bangkok. Saldaña truly shows the struggle of her character, Rita Mora Castro, coming into herself while managing the crazy life of Emilia Pérez, the namesake and main actress of the film. 

When looking at who I truly believe to be supporting actresses in films, I feel that Grande’s performance as Glinda (formerly known as Galinda) the Good Witch was phenomenal. She held her space in the film incredibly well, showing her characters own struggles as she unconditionally supports her unlikely best friend, Elphaba. 

Saldaña is 100% deserving of her award, my only qualm being she should be receiving even more recognition for all of her hard work (and highest percentage of screen time in Emilia Pérez).  Still, I will clap and cheer as the munchkins did when they found out the Wicked Witch of the West was dead. Grande still has the chance to secure her Oscar in “Wicked: For Good,” coming to theatres November 2025. 

Who should win: Ariana Grande, “Wicked” 

Who will win: Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez” 

Actor in a Supporting Role - Ridhi Dondeti

“La Chimera,” “May December,” “Kamchatka.” There’s just something about movies with acting that makes the audience feel like they were watching each scene happen in real life. No climaxes, no big, dramatic scenes; just a movie about people learning more about themselves or others. “A Real Pain” is no exception to this list.

 These movies seemed so real because of the acting. Benji, played by Kieran Culkin, and David weren’t just characters on a screen; they were just regular people coping with their own loss as they reconnected with their cousin. This is how movies should be, and Culkin’s performance only elevates the story. Ultimately, Benji is a person we can all connect with as he learns about his family history and grappling with his own struggles, all while trying to reach out to people and support them.

Who should win: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”

Who will win: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”

Animated Feature - Sarah Motteler

“Best Animated Feature” has the unfortunate unofficial designation of being “the one for kids”, meaning that its entries are given less critical consideration. Rather than prizing innovation or taking risks, the films that win tend to be “safer” and made by recognizable companies.

For these reasons, “Inside Out 2” will almost certainly win this year. While Pixar has been on a dry streak in the category, with its last win in 2020 with “Soul,” “Inside Out” won in the category in 2015, and its sequel was even more of a commercial success. This isn’t to say that “Inside Out 2” wasn’t a good movie – I watched it and enjoyed it greatly – it just isn’t the best in the category, and it is buoyed by its brand name and more familiar style and subject matter. 

Of the five nominated films, “Flow” is the most deserving of a victory. The film follows a group of animals who come together to escape the suddenly-rising water levels and is entirely without dialogue, a bold choice that I believe pays off in centering the non-human experience. The animation style is beautiful and charmingly depicts the animals’ quirks and behaviors, which makes it all the more impressive that it was made entirely with Blender instead of a more specialized, more expensive engine. It’s also available on HBO Max, and I’d highly recommend you watch it.

Who should win: “Flow”

Who will win: “Inside Out 2”

Original Song - Charlie Cruz

Let’s be real — "Like a Bird" from Sing Sing is the only song here that actually feels like a winner. It’s acoustic, raw, and perfectly captures the film’s soul. The stripped-down production lets the lyrics breathe, and that not-so-subtle clapping in the background? Pure magic. It’s the kind of track you hear once and immediately add to your playlist.

But the Academy? They’ll go for "El Mal" from Emilia Pérez. It’s flashy, dramatic, and just won a Golden Globe. As a Spanish speaker and hip-hop fan, I wanted to love it, but the flow is messy and weirdly unsatisfying. Still, its theatrical edge makes it the kind of “statement song” Oscar voters eat up.

Meanwhile, "The Journey" from The Six Triple Eight has H.E.R.’s powerhouse vocals and Diane Warren’s Oscar pedigree — so don’t be shocked if it sneaks an upset.

Who Should Win: "Like a Bird" - Sing Sing

Who Will Win: "El Mal" - Emilia Pérez

LIGHTNING ROUND PREDICTIONS

Writing (Original Screenplay) - Ridhi Dondeti

Who Should Win: “A Real Pain”

Who Will Win: “The Substance”

Writing (Adapted Screenplay) - Jay Collura

Who Should Win: “Nickel Boys”

Who Will Win: “Conclave”

International Feature Film  - Sarah Motteler

Who Should Win: “Flow”

Who Will Win: “I’m Still Here”

Cinematography - Arman Saxena

Who Should Win: “Nickel Boys” (not nominated)

Who Will Win: “The Brutalist”

Production Design - Max Scholl

Who Should and Will Win: “Dune: Part Two”

Documentary Short - Arman Saxena

Who Should Win and Will Win: “Incident”

Makeup and Hairstyling - Sara Davidson

Who Should Win: “Wicked” 

Who Will Win: “The Substance” 

Sound - Arman Saxena

Who Should Win and Will Win: “Dune: Part Two”

Original Song - Ridhi Dondeti

Who Should Win: “Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing”

Who Will Win: “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez”

Original Score - Jay Collura

Who Should and Will Win: “The Brutalist”

Visual Effects - Sara Davidson 

Who Should Win: “Better Man” 

Who Will Win: “Dune: Part Two” 

Editing - Max Scholl

Who Should Win: “Anora”

Who Will Win: “The Brutalist”

Costume Design - Sara Davidson

Who Should and Will Win: “Wicked”  

Documentary Feature - Arman Saxena

Who Should Win and Will Win: “No Other Land”

Animated Short - Charlie Cruz

Who Should Win: “In the Shadow of the Cypress”

Who Will Win:  “Magic Candies”

---